In the grand narrative of British political history, few periods evoke as much rueful amusement as the twin sagas of Tory tribulation in the 1906 and 1997 general elections. Picture, if you will, the pomp and circumstance of Arthur Balfour’s era, as he, with the confidence of a lion entering the colosseum, led his Conservative cohorts into the electoral arena of 1906.
And if the name “Balfour” sounds familiar to you – well done! Arthur Balfour famously issued the Balfour Declaration in 1917, announcing British support for a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine. As Foreign Secretary, he was just as useless as when he was Prime Minister during one of the Tories’ largest political losses in history. We must note, history remembers the winners … but it also remembers the inadequate losers too. Balfour. Remember the name.
Prior to the election, the resurgent Liberals, under the dynamic leadership of Henry Campbell-Bannerman, would prove to be a formidable opponent. As the dust settled, the Tories found themselves floundering in the wake of an electoral tsunami, losing a staggering 246 seats – an electoral catastrophe of unparalleled magnitude. The Liberals, buoyed by their triumph, seized control of the House of Commons with an impressive 399 seats, marking the dawn of a new political era.
Fast forward to the tumultuous terrain of 1997, where John Major’s Conservative Party found itself adrift in a sea of discontent and disillusionment. The once-mighty Tories, who had long held sway over British politics, now faced the unenviable task of defending their record against the rising tide of Tony Blair’s New Labour movement.
Major, with his trademark understated demeanour and steadfast determination, sought to rally the troops and steer the ship of state through the stormy waters of economic uncertainty and political upheaval. Alas, it was not to be. Blair’s New Labour juggernaut, with its slick campaign machinery and irresistible charisma, swept aside the Tories with ruthless efficiency. The result? A devastating defeat that saw the Conservatives haemorrhage 178 seats, leaving them with a mere 165 in the House of Commons. Meanwhile, New Labour, riding high on a wave of optimism and promise, secured a commanding majority of 179 seats, signalling the dawn of a new political era.
With a statesman-like leader, such as Major, the Tories still suffered a staggering loss of 178 seats – leaving them with just 165 seats and Blair with an unbelievable 418 seats. That was with a well-respected statesman at the helm. Since 2015 we have dealt with incompetency, corruption, inadequacy or just plain evil. You may know them as Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak. So what could happen in 2024?
To answer this, we need to know what precipitated these seismic shifts in the political landscape. Ah, the devil is in the details. In both instances, a union of factors conspired to spell doom for the Conservative Party.
Economic mismanagement, internal divisions, and a failure to resonate with the aspirations of the electorate all played their part in sealing the Tories’ fate. From Balfour’s struggles to address the pressing issues of unemployment and social reform to Major’s battles with economic instability and European integration, the Conservatives found themselves out of step with the prevailing mood of the nation. Moreover, their perceived detachment from the concerns of ordinary voters only served to exacerbate their woes, as they grappled with an increasingly restive electorate clamouring for change. Sound familiar?
Of course, no political debacle would be complete without a healthy dose of hubris, and the Tories certainly didn’t disappoint on that front. From Balfour’s overconfidence in the face of impending defeat to Major’s stubborn refusal to heed the warning signs of electoral annihilation, the Conservatives seemed destined to stumble headlong into the abyss of political oblivion. It was like watching a Greek tragedy unfold in real-time, with the protagonists blinded by their own arrogance and pride, unable to see the writing on the wall until it was too late.
So, what does the future hold for the Tories in 2024? Will they learn from the mistakes of their forebears, or are they doomed to repeat the sins of the past? Only time will tell. Could they end up with fewer than 100 seats? It’s not unimaginable! One can hope.
With Rishi Sunak at the helm and a litany of scandals and missteps to contend with, the Conservatives face an uphill battle to retain their grip on power. And if history is any guide, they may well find themselves once again cast adrift in the choppy seas of electoral defeat, as the electorate delivers its verdict with a resounding cry of “out with the old, in with the new!”
Ignorantly Ignorant 